Trump takes Middle East victory lap – but big questions remain

Aboard Air Force One en route to the Nato summit in the Netherlands, Trump shared a personal text message from a somewhat unlikely source.

It was sent by Nato boss Mark Rutte who praised the American president for what he had accomplished in using US bombers to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“Congratulations and thank you for your decisive action in Iran, ” wrote Rutte in a message the president posted to his Truth Social account. “That was truly extraordinary and something no one else dared to do.”

Trump has had his differences with Nato in the past, as he’s called into doubt the alliance’s mutual defence agreement and the military contributions made by other member nations.

Rutte addressed that, as well, telling Trump he was “flying into another big success” at the Nato summit, where member nations had agreed to Trump’s demand to boost defence spending to 5% of their gross domestic product.

“It will be your win,” he concluded.

The warm words, and the president’s eagerness to share them to the world, illustrated just how much the diplomatic equation in the Middle East and among US allies has changed for Trump.

Last week he left the G7 summit in Canada a day early, as conflict raged between Israel and Iran and it appeared increasingly likely the US would join the fight.

The Americans attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday night, but by Tuesday morning the president departed Washington for another international trip, this time with a fragile ceasefire established between the two warring parties.

Rutte’s text – which a Nato press officer confirmed to the BBC as authentic – dovetails with the accounts provided on and off the record by White House officials.

Trump’ military strike removed the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons. His actions triggered the ceasefire and ended what he calls the “12 Day War”.

His involvement and his pressure – including an angry outburst directed at both sides on Tuesday morning and what the White House called an “exceptionally firm and direct” phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from Air Force One – ensured that the ceasefire would hold.

Last week, America’s allies were anxious. Now, it appears Trump is heading to Europe with the intention of basking in their praise.

The outlook, however, is more complicated than that.

While the administration touts that the US bombing raid “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research facilities, US military intelligence officials have told American media that the damage is not as severe as the White House has claimed.

The country’s nuclear programme has probably only been set back by months, according to a preliminary Pentagon intelligence assessment. And the Islamic Republic’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not eliminated in the bombings, sources familiar with the report told CBS News.

The White House says the assessment is “flat-out wrong” and is “a clear attempt to demean” President Trump.